Forex Analysis & Reviews: 08.03.2023 - Imports of goods to the U.S....

08.03.2023 11:44 PM

Imports of goods to the U.S. are steadily increasing

The U.S. trade deficit grew to the widest in three months at the start of the year, thanks to a strong pickup in imports of merchandise.

U.S. merchandise imports are rising moderately

The opening of China and the abandonment of quarantine measures around the world have led to a recovery in supply chains. This has not slowed the volume of shipments to developed countries. The U.S., like European countries, has significantly increased shipments of finished and semi-finished goods to the country.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $68.7 billion gap, up 1.6% from a month earlier in January.

Probably, the reason for that is buoyant exports, including energy exports to European countries, as many months of the dollar's decline also helped stimulate purchases of goods by U.S. manufacturers. Inflation-adjusted exports of consumer goods, automobiles and parts reached record levels, and the real value of shipments of capital goods overseas was the highest since March 2019. Overall, the U.S. shipped more goods in January compared to December 2022.

The increase in exports is noted for the first time since August 2022. At the same time, it took place in almost all industries. Pharmaceutical and other consumer segments, capital equipment, and automobiles were notable.

At the same time, so-called "travel exports," that is, the amount travelers spend in the U.S., fell to $12.1 billion, while travel imports, a measure of the number of trips Americans make abroad, rose to $11.9 billion, a record gap. Apparently, the weak dollar has so far provided little incentive for foreigners to visit America.

As a result, the value of imports rose 3%, to $325.8 billion, while exports rose to $257.5 billion. Net exports are expected to add about 0.6 percentage point to growth in the first quarter. This exceeds fourth-quarter trade growth, but not as much as the import component.

The stable domestic economy and the "commodity hunger" of earlier periods helped support import demand. In addition, reduced shipping congestion and the normalization of global supply chains have generally helped trade between the U.S. and other countries. For example, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China, unadjusted, widened to $25.2 billion from $23.5 billion.

Despite the growth of commodity transactions, economists give restrained forecasts, expecting the "commodity hunger" to soon be saturated and demand to fall due to rising prices.

This is indirectly evidenced by an adjustment for inflation. While the nominal merchandise trade deficit narrowed slightly, January's adjusted merchandise deficit widened to $101.8 billion, also the largest in three months. There are nuances here, however.

Indeed, the drop in demand now looming this summer may reduce inflationary pressures. However, rising wages have the potential to stimulate demand for both goods and services. Given the "cheap wages" effect, where inflation quickly eats away at savings, the public tends to invest in real estate and, with little savings, in durable goods. Demand for goods is likely to remain at a fairly high level, preventing the import component in the U.S. balance of trade from declining. Buoyant demand, in turn, will keep the dollar from falling too much. But it will be a negative factor for the economies of developing countries.

You have already liked this post today

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Se você tiver alguma dúvida sobre conteúdo, por favor, entre em contato com editorial-board@instaforex.com

News

Egor Danilov,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Mais artigos deste autor

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Selecionar intervalo de tempo

min

hora

horas

dia

Comece a negociar

Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.

Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.

U.S. merchandise imports are rising moderately

Recommended Stories

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 24 de abril

Sequência de lucros: de tênis Adidas a jatos da Boeing, balanços trimestrais impulsionam os mercados

Trump diz que os mercados reagem: Nikkei sobe 2%, dólar se fortalece, China aguarda resultado

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 23 de abril

Trump age, os mercados reagem: Nikkei sobe 2%, dólar se recupera

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 22 de abril

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 21 de abril

Trump, Fed e ouro de US$ 3.000? Os mercados reagem aos sinais de alerta

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 17 de abril

Quando tudo deu errado: Nvidia sob pressão, ações caem, Powell espera por clareza

Principais análises

U.S. merchandise imports are rising moderately

Recommended Stories

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 24 de abril

Sequência de lucros: de tênis Adidas a jatos da Boeing, balanços trimestrais impulsionam os mercados

Trump diz que os mercados reagem: Nikkei sobe 2%, dólar se fortalece, China aguarda resultado

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 23 de abril

Trump age, os mercados reagem: Nikkei sobe 2%, dólar se recupera

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 22 de abril

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 21 de abril

Trump, Fed e ouro de US$ 3.000? Os mercados reagem aos sinais de alerta

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 17 de abril

Quando tudo deu errado: Nvidia sob pressão, ações caem, Powell espera por clareza

Principais análises

Dear visitor,