Analisis Forex & Kajian: 18.12.2020 - Oil price decline on Friday a...

18.12.2020 12:46 PM

Oil price decline on Friday a necessary correction according to analysts

Crude oil prices slightly declined on Friday morning. However, most analysts warn that there is no need to panic: this is just a necessary correction, which will immediately end, especially since there is still plenty of negative external background. In particular, the price of oil is being pressured by the extremely steady and high growth of daily coronavirus infection in the world. This, in turn, suggests that quarantine restrictions will not be ended in the near future, which will seriously complicate the path to recovery of the economy, which was severely affected by the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. And the oil market, of course, will not be able to confidently start its recovery yet.

Such unpleasant news somehow did not affect the fact that oil closes in the green zone for the seventh week in a row. Moreover, its growth is so large-scale that some experts have begun to doubt the reality of what is happening. Meanwhile, the positive trend in the black gold market is caused by the very early decision on a new financial incentive program in the United States of America. Analysts almost unanimously agree that the financial assistance package will perfectly support the oil market in the short and even medium-term. And the demand for raw materials can start a more active recovery, which will then be supported by mass vaccination. At least, the process of preparing for it is now proceeding at a rapid pace.

Over the past few weeks, black gold has shown an almost unstoppable increase in value. This was facilitated by several significant factors at once, in particular the long-awaited appearance of a vaccine against coronavirus, a reduction in the level of oil reserves in America, a significant increase in demand in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as a significant weakening of the US dollar. All this together, of course, has become a balm for the oil market. The price of oil has risen sharply and continues to increase its position. If the US Congress can finally agree on the signing of the financial assistance program, the price of WTI crude oil will sharply increase up to $50 per barrel and maybe even higher.

However, the negotiation process on the stimulus package has not yet reached its logical end. There are still quite a few controversial points that cannot be overcome yet. One thing is clear: the total funding is set at $900 billion. According to the latest data, it will include payments to citizens of the country in the amount of $600, as well as additional benefits to payments to those who are on the labor exchange, which will cost around $300 a week. Options for helping small businesses and airlines are still being considered, but so far there are no clarifications on this issue.

The price of futures contracts for Brent crude oil for delivery in February on the trading floor in London fell by 0.62% or $0.32, which sent it to $51.18 per barrel. Thursday's trading ended with an increase of 0.8% or $0.42, and the final price consolidated in the area of $51.5 per barrel, which was the highest value in almost ten months.

The price of futures contracts for WTI light crude oil for delivery in January on the electronic trading platform in New York sank 0.52% or $0.25. Its current value so far was $48.11 per barrel. On Thursday, it gained 1.1% or $0.54, which sent it to $48.36 per barrel. This was also the highest value in the last ten months.

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Maria Shablon,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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