empty
23.01.2024 02:53 PM
Bitcoin made a downward breakdown of the $40k level: will the fall continue?

More than a week has passed since the spot BTC-ETF approval and the local high update. During this time, the price of the cryptocurrency has decreased from $48.9k to $40k due to the unloading of portfolios by various categories of investors. This process began last week, but due to optimistic sentiments, buyers could maintain balance and absorb the free volumes of BTC.

This image is no longer relevant

However, the pace of sales significantly intensified, including those by institutional investors and miners. Concurrently, financial markets began to realize that a quick easing of monetary policy is not anticipated due to persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions. Considering these factors, Bitcoin's quotes continued to decline, and by January 22, the cryptocurrency made a bearish breakthrough of the $40k level.

Will the decline continue?

It's still early to say that the breakdown of the $40k level will be a prelude to another collapse in Bitcoin quotes. Before making any conclusions, it is necessary to wait for the end of the current trading day, when this fall may be recovered. However, the $40k level is extremely important, both from the point of view of the key support zone of the upward trend and psychologically. A breakdown and final consolidation below $40k may lead to a new wave of sales and, as a consequence, a deeper correction.

This image is no longer relevant

At the same time, analysts at Santiment note that large wallets are not resuming the accumulation of BTC or stablecoins. Without clear signals for the start of this process, one should not count on the resumption of a stable bullish rally. However, it is reported that individual large players continue to purchase BTC. Over the past day, BlackRock bought another 4,800 BTC, increasing the number of coins in its balance to 33,430 units.

This image is no longer relevant

The situation is complicated by publications in the media, where it was announced that Grayscale decided to sell BTC for $2.8 billion immediately after the approval of the spot BTC-ETF. Fundamental factors are also a significant reason for investors to refrain from buying cryptocurrency and to pay attention to the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. As of January 23, there are many more rational arguments in the market indicating the continuation of the downward movement of Bitcoin's price.

BTC/USD Analysis

As of January 22, Bitcoin formed a large bearish candle after consolidation and several attempts to break through the $40.5k level. Ultimately, the key support zone fell, which means that the structure of the upward trend, which began in October 2023, is under threat. Technically, Bitcoin continues to be at the support level, but if the trading day ends below the $40k level, the likelihood of further decline will significantly increase.

This image is no longer relevant

Technical metrics do not show signs of buyer activation; on the contrary, they signal complete seller dominance. The Stochastic continues its downward movement in the oversold zone, and the MACD has entered the red zone, indicating total bearish dominance. If successfully consolidated below $40k and further downward movement ensues, bears will head to the next support zone near the $38k level, where there was a prolonged period of accumulation.

This image is no longer relevant

Despite the pessimism, one cannot rule out the possibility that the breakdown of the $40k level was necessary to collect liquidity, which reached $150 million. Therefore, there is a possibility of a pump in the BTC/USD price above $40k. In addition, it should not be forgotten that important macroeconomic statistics about the labor market and business activity in the U.S. are expected. These events can also bring back optimism to the cryptocurrency market and strengthen buying sentiments.

Conclusions

The current trading day could be decisive in determining the future trajectory of Bitcoin's price movement. If BTC/USD consolidates below $40k, the likelihood of a downward movement to $38k and lower will significantly increase. However, if the bulls turn the situation around and restore BTC above $40k, it could bring back confidence in Bitcoin's bullish trend and increase the volumes of purchases necessary to complete the correction.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

BTC/USD Analysis on April 29, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of the BTC/USD has become somewhat more complex. We observed a corrective downward structure that completed its formation around the $75,000 mark. After

Chin Zhao 11:30 2025-04-29 UTC+2

$200,000 for Bitcoin by Year-End

While Bitcoin is still struggling to break through the $95,000 level — despite all the conditions being in place — Standard Chartered believes that in the second quarter, the leading

Jakub Novak 11:09 2025-04-29 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on April 29

Bitcoin and Ethereum Buyers Are Trying to Control the Market — and So Far, They're Doing Quite Well However, it's important to note that the longer we remain below $95,000

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:51 2025-04-29 UTC+2

Bitcoin at the Start of a New Rally: When to Expect $120,000 and Beyond

After a week full of turbulence, the cryptocurrency market seems to have taken a deep breath. The Fear and Greed Index has been recorded at 51 — a rare neutral

Ekaterina Kiseleva 01:15 2025-04-29 UTC+2

XRP futures to launch on May 19

Over the weekend, Bitcoin experienced a brief dip but soon returned to the $94,000 level. Ether also faced some pressure, but managed to hold its ground. Surprisingly, XRP saw only

Jakub Novak 16:14 2025-04-28 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on April 28

Bitcoin is being pressured, but it still holds up quite confidently. After rebounding from the $92,000 mark, the first cryptocurrency returned to the $94,000 area, maintaining good growth prospects

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:19 2025-04-28 UTC+2

Bitcoin – Technical Situation Analysis

Currently, bullish players are attempting to change the situation and achieve bullish optimism for April. Last week, resistance at the final level of the weekly Ichimoku cross (93344) was tested

Evangelos Poulakis 03:51 2025-04-28 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on April 25

Yesterday's unsuccessful attempt to stay above $94,000 demonstrates that there is still significant buying interest. Ethereum is also holding up quite well, although yesterday's correction during the European session likely

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:56 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Polkadot Cryptocurrency, Friday April 25, 2025.

With the condition of the Stochastic Oscillator indicator which is already above the Overbought level (80) even though it is currently still moving above the WMA (30 Shift 2) which

Arief Makmur 07:02 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Solana Cryptocurrency, Friday April 25, 2025.

Although currently the Solana cryptocurrency is moving in a strengthening condition which is indicated by its price movement moving above the WMA (30 Shift 2) but with the appearance

Arief Makmur 07:02 2025-04-25 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.