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09.11.2022 02:18 PM
US premarket on November 9: US stock market declines after first midterm elections results
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On Wednesday, futures on the US stock indexes fell at the beginning of the trading session but then managed to recoup most of the losses. Corporate reports from a number of companies still point to the US economy sliding into recession, which has not even officially begun in the country yet. Interim elections also did not lead to a 100% victory of the Republican party, which investors hoped for, so the game of nerves starts in the market again.

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Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices are trading slightly lower, losing 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Corporate reports from News Corp. and Walt Disney Co. contributed to the downside, with each stock down at least 8% in the premarket. The sell-off in the crypto market also continues and has only intensified after news that Binance is buying FTX. Oil has fallen in price due to a sluggish demand outlook from China.

Meanwhile, many stock and bond investors were hoping for a Republican return to Congress, and the best outcome was seen as the Republican Party gaining control of both the House and the Senate. However, this has not happened. While the Republicans still have a good majority in the House of Representatives, the number of seats they have in the Senate is not so encouraging. Now we should wait for a new vote count and new reports.

The Republicans need to regain control of both houses, which would clearly be a devastating blow to the Democrats and Biden, who could no longer make major decisions in office for the next two years without Republican support and approval. A divided House and Republican victory could mean that the bipartisan battles over spending and the national debt ceiling will now not be as dramatic or fierce as they once were. However, this is unlikely to noticeably improve the political outlook. Instead, attention is likely to return to the Federal Reserve and the U.S. economy, along with record-high inflation.

The final result of the midterm elections may be revealed within several days or even weeks, especially if the losing side challenges the results.

Meanwhile, the European stock market fell for the first time in four days because of problems with companies in the travel and automotive industries. The cryptocurrency market also continued its decline, with bitcoin hitting another yearly low as the potential takeover of rival exchange FTX by Binance Holdings Ltd. showed how tensions in the digital asset industry are damaging some of its leading players. Bitcoin lost more than 15.0% overnight and continues to decline.

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As for the S&P 500 index, after the price pulled back to the upside yesterday, it plummeted. Bulls need to protect the support of $3,808. While the instrument is trading above this level, demand for risky assets is expected to return amid the lack of important statistics from the US. It may strengthen the index and fix the price above $3,835, pushing it toward $3,861. If this level is broken through, we may see an upward correction to the resistance of $3,905. The next target is located at $3,942. If the price declines, bulls will need to show some action near $3,808 and $3,773. If those levels are pierced, the index may plummet to $3,735 and $3,699, opening the way to a new support of $3,661.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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