Forex Analysis & Reviews: 04.04.2023 - Bitcoin continues to...

04.04.2023 11:37 AM

Bitcoin continues to consolidate amid the activation of large funds: what to expect next?

Bitcoin begins a new trading week with a classic consolidation near the $28k level. As expected, the price failed to move below $27k, which resulted in a local pullback, and the cryptocurrency restored the status quo near the $28k level.

This suggests that the consolidation period of the cryptocurrency continues, and neither side is able to seize the initiative. Low trading volumes are direct evidence of the further redistribution of BTC coins. The lull in the Bitcoin market is accompanied by relative "silence" in the macroeconomic space.

Given the dynamics of price movements in recent months, we should expect an important economic event, which will be the basis for further movements in the Bitcoin market. Considering BTC's dependence on Fed policies, we should expect an increase in trading activity in anticipation of important inflation news.

Fundamental background

Alarming movements continue around the crypto market and the largest exchanges of the industry, which reduce the investment fuse. Evidence of this is the weekly inflow of funds into cryptocurrency funds which has plummeted to $2 million.

Despite the banking crisis and the injection of funds into the U.S. economy, markets are betting 61% on a key rate hike at the Fed meeting in May. It also serves as a deterrent to active cryptocurrency trading. The marathon of large companies to reduce staff and disappointing reporting continues.

McDonald's announced the temporary closure of its New York office amid massive layoffs of employees. The fast food giant will be joined by Disney, which is already implementing a policy to reduce more than 7,000 people. Investors were not satisfied with Tesla's low deliveries in the first quarter, which negatively affected the price of the SPX.

It is also important to note that OPEC has announced a reduction in oil production by more than 1 million barrels per day. This could create new unrest in the global economy and exacerbate the inflation problem. In macroeconomic terms, the world is approaching another phase of uncertainty that could prolong and exacerbate the current crisis.

BTC/USD Analysis

Fundamentally, Bitcoin is doing great and continues to gain massive investments. The necessary injections from the Fed into the banking system indirectly affected the state of the crypto market, specifically Bitcoin. The asset increased its market share to 47% and is again listed on the world stage on par with precious metals.

According to CryptoQuant, the upward movement of Bitcoin began in parallel with the activation of large funds that continue to accumulate BTC coins. Also, the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has reached 990,000, indicating a growing interest in Bitcoin.

In technical terms, Bitcoin raises questions, as the asset formed an uncertain doji candle at the end of April 1st. As a result, the price steadily declined for several days and reached the $28k level. If BTC/USD quotes end today below this level, the decline will continue.

Selling pressure continues to mount and weak buybacks from buyers are becoming more and more evident. However, at this stage, we see drifting within the usual range of $26.6k–$29.1k. The lack of significant bullish gains and rising profit-taking sentiment are driving the price down to $27k.

Given the growing bearish sentiment and the high level of market manipulativeness at this stage, we can expect a backlash from the price. Market makers may use bearish sentiment as an opportunity to absorb large amounts of liquidity.

Results

The Bitcoin price continues to drift within the $26.6k–$29.1k range. Bearish sentiment is starting to dominate the market again, and the number of shorts is increasing every day. At the same time, the probability of manipulative upward movement to collect liquidity from stops also increases. If the BTC price consolidates below $28k at the end of the current day, the probability of a bullish impulse will increase significantly.

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*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

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