Forex Analysis & Reviews: 08.03.2023 - Imports of goods to the U.S....

08.03.2023 11:44 PM

Imports of goods to the U.S. are steadily increasing

The U.S. trade deficit grew to the widest in three months at the start of the year, thanks to a strong pickup in imports of merchandise.

U.S. merchandise imports are rising moderately

The opening of China and the abandonment of quarantine measures around the world have led to a recovery in supply chains. This has not slowed the volume of shipments to developed countries. The U.S., like European countries, has significantly increased shipments of finished and semi-finished goods to the country.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $68.7 billion gap, up 1.6% from a month earlier in January.

Probably, the reason for that is buoyant exports, including energy exports to European countries, as many months of the dollar's decline also helped stimulate purchases of goods by U.S. manufacturers. Inflation-adjusted exports of consumer goods, automobiles and parts reached record levels, and the real value of shipments of capital goods overseas was the highest since March 2019. Overall, the U.S. shipped more goods in January compared to December 2022.

The increase in exports is noted for the first time since August 2022. At the same time, it took place in almost all industries. Pharmaceutical and other consumer segments, capital equipment, and automobiles were notable.

At the same time, so-called "travel exports," that is, the amount travelers spend in the U.S., fell to $12.1 billion, while travel imports, a measure of the number of trips Americans make abroad, rose to $11.9 billion, a record gap. Apparently, the weak dollar has so far provided little incentive for foreigners to visit America.

As a result, the value of imports rose 3%, to $325.8 billion, while exports rose to $257.5 billion. Net exports are expected to add about 0.6 percentage point to growth in the first quarter. This exceeds fourth-quarter trade growth, but not as much as the import component.

The stable domestic economy and the "commodity hunger" of earlier periods helped support import demand. In addition, reduced shipping congestion and the normalization of global supply chains have generally helped trade between the U.S. and other countries. For example, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China, unadjusted, widened to $25.2 billion from $23.5 billion.

Despite the growth of commodity transactions, economists give restrained forecasts, expecting the "commodity hunger" to soon be saturated and demand to fall due to rising prices.

This is indirectly evidenced by an adjustment for inflation. While the nominal merchandise trade deficit narrowed slightly, January's adjusted merchandise deficit widened to $101.8 billion, also the largest in three months. There are nuances here, however.

Indeed, the drop in demand now looming this summer may reduce inflationary pressures. However, rising wages have the potential to stimulate demand for both goods and services. Given the "cheap wages" effect, where inflation quickly eats away at savings, the public tends to invest in real estate and, with little savings, in durable goods. Demand for goods is likely to remain at a fairly high level, preventing the import component in the U.S. balance of trade from declining. Buoyant demand, in turn, will keep the dollar from falling too much. But it will be a negative factor for the economies of developing countries.

你今天已经点赞上这篇文章了

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

If you have any content questions, please contact editorial-board@instaforex.com

News

Egor Danilov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025

该作者的更多文章

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

选择时间框架

分钟

小时

天

周

开始交易

通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。

下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。

U.S. merchandise imports are rising moderately

推荐文章

4月11日美國市場新聞摘要

市場如過山車：S&P 500 下跌 3%，黃金創下歷史新高

比特幣在關稅動盪擾亂全球市場中掙扎尋求支撐

4月10日美國市場新聞摘要

為什麼在人民幣貶值和美國期貨下跌的情況下，股票卻在上升？

4月9日美國市場新聞摘要

多米諾效應：美國關稅衝擊市場，投資者拋售美元與債券

「黃金」預測：黃金價格將達到 $3,500，$3,700——越來越高？

市場如同坐過山車：道瓊指數暴跌，黃金上漲，特朗普使投資者緊張不安

4月8日美國市場新聞摘要

Top analytics

U.S. merchandise imports are rising moderately

推荐文章

4月11日美國市場新聞摘要

市場如過山車：S&P 500 下跌 3%，黃金創下歷史新高

比特幣在關稅動盪擾亂全球市場中掙扎尋求支撐

4月10日美國市場新聞摘要

為什麼在人民幣貶值和美國期貨下跌的情況下，股票卻在上升？

4月9日美國市場新聞摘要

多米諾效應：美國關稅衝擊市場，投資者拋售美元與債券

「黃金」預測：黃金價格將達到 $3,500，$3,700——越來越高？

市場如同坐過山車：道瓊指數暴跌，黃金上漲，特朗普使投資者緊張不安

4月8日美國市場新聞摘要

Top analytics

Dear visitor,