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02.11.2022 11:35 PM
"We rolled your recession": investors refuse to accept the rules of the bear market
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A study by the Swiss bank UBS found that, despite worries about inflation and geopolitical risks, wealthy investors are optimistic.

"We rolled your recession": investors refuse to accept the rules of the bear market

In the period from September 28 to October 17, UBS surveyed 2,913 investors from around the world who own at least $1 million in investment assets. According to the survey, 59% of large private investors admitted to UBS Group AG that they are optimistic about the short-term prospects of the stock market. This is as much as 50% more than just three months ago, when the markets were about to collapse again after a short rally. As arguments, traders cite high demand for goods and services, a return to normal life after the Covid-19 pandemic and high corporate incomes.

At the same time, different regions show a big difference in the assessment of future events.

Despite record inflation, the energy crisis in Ukraine, European investors are optimistic about the future: 69% of respondents are optimistic about the region's economy in the next 12 months. This is followed by Asia, where 62% of Asian investors positively assess the prospects of the region during the year, although October was a failure for the stock market of the sector. American investors are more pessimistic: only 51% expect a turn to a better life in the United States and almost two-thirds said they believe that a recession is inevitable.

Despite all the warnings of economists, more than half of investors believe that the recession has already begun or will begin before the end of 2022, and will die out soon after.

And although almost two-thirds expect an increase in inflation next year, it does not seem to bother big traders too much, who definitely always have enough for a bun with butter and paying electricity bills. But they are not sitting idly by either: almost half have already cut costs, while 31% said they plan to save less to offset the effects of rising prices.

This sharp surge of optimism is quite interesting as a market phenomenon. Despite the obvious facts and figures, people do not want to give up as long as they have the money to participate in transactions. The spread across regions is particularly impressive, which is difficult to explain both in terms of the weight of a particular currency in a basket of currencies and in terms of the state of the economy. Undoubtedly, this psychological confidence, partly based on the fact that a market fall will also bring income with a correct bearish assessment, will lead to the fact that the risks of a recession may well be underestimated. Especially amid expectations of a rapid recovery, at least in the US zone. So we probably expect news of several very high-profile devastations next year. In the meantime, bears definitely shouldn't worry about liquidity. At least in the eurozone and Asia.

Egor Danilov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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技术分析
EUR/USD。5月6日。空頭已竭盡所能 週一，歐元/美元匯率再次逆轉，有利於美元，不過這次的跌幅更弱。上週大部分時光裡，空頭發起了疲軟的攻擊，因為美國負面信息的背景形成了抵抗。
Samir Klishi
10:30 2025-05-06 +02:00
1015
技术分析
英鎊/美元。5月6日。中國得到了它應得的 在小時圖上，週一英鎊/美元貨幣對繼續橫盤整理。這一橫盤走勢始於上週，當時美國發布了一系列重要報告，市場參與者原本預期會有活躍交易。
Samir Klishi
10:25 2025-05-06 +02:00
1030
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